A new scientific study from the Mubadala ACCESS Center at NYU Abu Dhabi has uncovered the factors behind the Arabian Gulf’s extreme summer heat, particularly the intense marine heatwaves that can push sea temperatures to record highs. Although the Gulf is already one of the warmest bodies of water on Earth during summer, researchers had long been puzzled about why some years become especially hot. By analyzing decades of ocean and atmospheric data alongside advanced climate models, the team identified the drivers that cause these unusually high temperatures.
The research found that extreme summer warming occurs when two major wind systems shift simultaneously: the local north-westerly Shamal winds weaken at the same time that the Indian summer monsoon winds strengthen. This combination increases moisture in the atmosphere above the Gulf, creating humid, hazy conditions that trap heat at the sea’s surface instead of allowing it to escape. Surprisingly, this process is more strongly linked to La Niña climate patterns, when waters in the tropical Pacific are cooler than usual, and to phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, rather than to the clear skies and direct sunlight that drive heatwaves in other parts of the world.
Understanding these patterns could help scientists and authorities predict extreme sea temperatures weeks or even months in advance, offering valuable lead time to protect vulnerable coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs and fisheries. The findings highlight how local climate dynamics intersect with global atmospheric patterns, providing a clearer picture of how summers in the Arabian Gulf become so intensely hot and how future heatwaves might be anticipated and managed.
